Reasons for 2022 rerun

There have been a debate on whether the forthcoming 2022 general election will be won on first round or there will be a rerun. For a rerun no presidential candidate attains 50% and atleast 1 more vote.

Photo: D.P Dr William Ruto in coast Kenya.

Going by current political landscape there seems to be no formidable party or coalition that has evidently show attainment of the 50 +1 constitutional requirements. However, UDA presidential aspirant Dr. Ruto and Odm party leader Rt. Raila Odinga are the top contenders and they are likely to face each other in the rerun. There has been opinions polls indicating that Dr. Ruto been the fore front followed by Raila.

On the other sides we have third force  coalition which seems to dilute the strength of the top two horse by the name OKA coalition led by Ukambani kingpin Mr. Kalonzo Musyoka, Senator Gideon Moi from rift valley, Mr Musalia Mudavadi and Senator Moses Wetangula both from western Kenya.

Mt Kenya Region factor

There is people dismissing Dr. Ruto strength in central Kenya by advocating that Mr. Raila only needs 10% of the region votes. On the other hand Dr. Ruto supporters urgue that "Baba"  has lost support in other regions after 2017 NASA principles parted ways where they formed OKA leaving out  Mr. Odinga alone. They also urgue that for 10 % Mt Kenya boost, then Mr. Odinga must be supported by the OKA principles which not help in attainment of 50 + 1 of votes cast.

Other presidential candidates factor

Recently there has been more emerging presidential candidates that may limit attainment of 50+1 mark. This candidates includes Muranga county governor Mwangi Wa Iria on CRP party, N.A Speaker Justin Muturi, Former Kiambu governor Hon. William Kabogo on newly registered party Tujibebe Wakenya Party among others. 

To conclude the race will take shape in near future as realignments might happen.

What your take?